Uncertainty analysis of free running manoeuvring model test on a modern ferry, with emphasis on heel angles

This paper presents an uncertainty study on the manoeuvring behaviour of a twin screw ferry. In particular, we are interested in heel angles that this ship achieves while manoeuvring. Earlier published uncertainty analysis has focused on the uncertainty of overshoot angles and tactical diameters see [1] and [2]. The heel angles of these ships are not large. However, there is a class of ships that may encounter large heel angles due to steering. Ferries are such ships. The present paper quantifies also the uncertainty of the measured heel angles due to manoeuvres.

During the model test series, results are obtained for various values of the stability (GM), where large heel angles are observed. This provides a unique insight in the relation between the GM, approach speed, directional stability and the achieved heel angles. Because of the demonstrated large heel angles, it was important to make an uncertainty analysis of these tests. More publications have been written on the uncertainty of overshoot angles and dimensions of turning circle manoeuvres. However, the uncertainty of heel angles during manoeuvres hasn’t been published yet, which makes this a unique paper. The uncertainty analysis will be based on repeat tests for the zigzag 10°/10° and 35° turning circle manoeuvres. Repeat tests are carried out for these manoeuvres to verify the mean and the uncertainty of the experimentally obtained values. The methodology for estimating the uncertainty with 95% confidence bounds are derived by accounting for 1) uncertainty from measurement, 2) repeat tests and 3) the uncertainty from propagation of initial conditions and the error in check angle and rudder. The uncertainty results are compared with a previous study of uncertainty of manoeuvring characteristics of model tests with the KVLCC2 [1] and [2].